(Written for and featured in Premier Betting’s The Weekly Insider Newsletter Vol 3, Issue 23)
Tottenham v Cardiff – Sunday 4.30pm
Just the one bet from me this weekend as I’ve struggled to find anything that I really like the
look of. The one bet that ticks my boxes however is Under 2.5 Goals as 5th place Spurs
entertain 19th place Cardiff. Much has been made about Tottenham’s inconsistent form
following their European exploits – five of their seven League defeats have come after
playing in the Europa League on a Thursday – and I’m looking for this to continue against the Welsh side who have the joint worst away record having managed just one win, six points and seven goals so far this season. My betting model indicates that there is a 63% chance of there being no more than two goals in the match, so with BetVictor offering odds as high as 2.15, this is above my target odds of 1.74 and looks to be a decent value bet.
The suggested bets are backed up by the following stats:
- At White Hart Lane, Tottenham have averaged 1.15 goals For and 1.38 goals Against, scoring in 77% and conceding in 54% of home games. Away from home, Cardiff have scored an average 0.54 goals and conceded an average 2.00 goals, whilst scoring in 39% and conceding in 85% of away games.
- There has been Under 2.5 Goals in 61% of Tottenham home games and 61% of Cardiff away games.
I also like the look of Cardiff on the Asian Handicap, particularly around the 1.5 AH mark,
however at the time of writing the odds have fallen lower than I’d like. Should the odds
increase back up to the evens mark, then this could be another option.
Tottenham v Cardiff Under 2.5 Goals 2.15 at BetVictor [WON]
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